Victor Wembanyama is the odds-on favorite to win his first Defensive Player of the Year award this year. As a rookie last season, he exploded onto the NBA scene as both a DPOY candidate and a future MVP candidate. This 2024-25 NBA season betting preview will determine whether the NBA DPOY odds for Wembanyama are worth looking at for your best NBA futures bet.
2024-25 NBA DPOY Odds: Spurs 20-Year-Old Heavily Favored
*All NBA DPOY Odds are courtesy of FanDuel.com odds with a Bet $5, Get $300 offer!*
Current NBA DPOY Odds
Victor Wembanyama -155
Chet Holmgren +1100
Bam Adebayo +1100
Evan Mobley +1400
Rudy Gobert +1800
Jaren Jackson Jr. +2600
Oddsmakers are expecting this season’s Defensive Player of the Year race to be a boring one. Wembanyama at -155 is such a strong favorite that the next closest odds are +1100. Interestingly enough, this is by another second-year player in Holmgren. Let’s look at the history of the award and Wembanyama’s rookie season to see why he is so favored to win the award in the 2024-25 season.
Last Season’s Race
Last season, Gobert won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award, tying him with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo for the most in NBA history. After facing criticism last season following his trade to the Timberwolves, Gobert made a strong comeback, leading the best defensive team in the league. Gobert ended with 72 first-place votes and 433 total points. Wembanyama was in second place for the award with 19 first-place votes and 245 total points. Bam Adebayo was third with 91 total points.
While Gobert’s team success strengthened his case, Wembanyama’s overall impact was undeniable, especially with his dominance in individual defensive metrics. Wembanyama’s influence was also reflected in advanced statistics, such as on/off data, where his presence significantly improved the Spurs’ defense.
Was Wembanyama Robbed?
Although Gobert won the award pretty handily, there is an argument to be made that Wembanyama was a more impactful defender last season. Although the Spurs only ranked 23rd in defensive rating, this was far from Wembanyama’s fault.
Wembanyama led the league in blocks as a rookie with 3.6 per game, more than a full block per game more than the second-highest average of 2.4. Wembanyama also added 1.2 steals per game to his stat sheet. He had over 100 more combined blocks/steals than Gobert did last season. They were almost identical in rim protection metrics. Opponents made 52% of their attempts at the basket with Gobert as the closest defender and 53% with Wembanyama nearby.
Some of the advanced metrics also favored Wembanyama. The Spurs recovered 68% of Wembanyama’s 213 blocks, the highest proportion for any player with at least 60 blocks. Wembanyama had 66 more recovered blocks than Gobert. The Spurs defensive rating was 11.5 points better with him on the court. This is compared to 4.2 points better for the Timberwolves when Gobert was on the court. This shows that Gobert had a much stronger defensive team behind him than Wembanyama.
With Gobert leading the Timberwolves to top defense and Wembanyama not even bringing the Spurs into the top 10, it is understandable why Gobert outshone him for last year’s DPOY award. That being said, the stats tell a slightly different story, and it is no wonder why Wembanyama is poised to grab the award this season.
