When we asked the fans a little over a week ago what the biggest need was for the Green Bay Packers this offseason, the results were as follows, in order: cornerback, defensive end, receiver and defensive tackle. Now that we’ve already previewed the cornerback, defensive end and defensive tackle class, it’s time to turn our attention to the final position in our preview series: receiver.
The Packers have a strong core of receivers in their room, but the loss of Christian Watson for at least three-quarters of the 2025 regular season puts them in a bad spot. Based on how their receivers were used in 2023 and 2024, it’s doubtful that any combination of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks or Romeo Doubs will threaten opposing defenses in the deeper portion of the field in the same way that Watson did before his injury. On top of that, Doubs and Watson are going into contract seasons, meaning the team will need to decide soon whether to double down on their investments or elect to let them play out their rookie deals before hitting free agency themselves.
As we did with the other positions we’ve previewed, we’re going to take a look at the Packers’ receivers and the receivers who could be available this offseason. We’ll take a two-year snapshot of how these receivers have performed in a key metric. For this exercise, we’re going to use adjusted yards per route run and compare them to the league average.
Adjusted yards treat touchdowns as a 20-yard bonus. According to NFL Pro, 91 receivers have run at least as many routes as the Packers’ top four wide receivers since 2023. We’re going to label those players as “qualifiers.” Among qualifiers, the league-wide adjusted yards per route ran over the last two years, by wide receivers, is 1.97 yards. From there, we can compare how valuable receivers have been to the league average.
Packers Receivers
- +481.7 adjusted yards vs. average: Jayden Reed (11th among 91 qualifiers)
- +169.2: Christian Watson (34th)
- +88.3: Dontayvion Wicks (42nd)
- -110.6: Romeo Doubs (52nd)
I want you to look at the chart below. It shows the distribution of all qualifying receivers in this metric. The bar highlighted is Jayden Reed. If you were truly doubting whether Reed is the 11th-best receiver in the league, the bar chart helps explain it.
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While Reed might be 11th, the difference between the 9th-best receiver in this metric and the 11th-best receiver in this metric is roughly as wide as the gap between the 9th receiver in this metric and the league average. This is all to say: The NFL is really dominated by just nine receivers.
The players who rank ahead of Reed are Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk, the usual suspects. Fellow Packers, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs, are all roughly league-average players, give or take. Though, I would say that’s underselling the impact that Watson brings to the offense as a speed receiver.
Quarterback Jordan Love struggled against man coverage in 2024, in part because Reed’s production per route ran is roughly cut in half when he’s playing man coverage instead of zone coverage. Generally, the Packers go to Watson more when they’re seeing a lot of man coverage. That option will be off the table, until at least the second half of the season in 2025. While there’s optimism that Watson could return to the team around Week 12 of next season, it’s not out of the question that he won’t play for the Packers in 2025. Last year, Miami Dolphins defensive end Bradley Chubb tore his ACL in Week 17. He never played for the Dolphins in 2024. Even if Watson does return, who knows if his deep speed will be at 100 percent, which is how he keeps defenses honest in the first place.
Top Free Agent Receivers
- +328.6: Stefon Diggs (18th)
- +328.1: Keenan Allen (19th)
- +295.2: DeAndre Hopkins (25th)
- +290.3: Amari Cooper (26th)
- +261.1: Tee Higgins (28th)
- +240.5: Chris Godwin (32nd)
- +111.1 Diontae Johnson (40th)
- -503.5: Darius Slayton (77th)
Here’s the good news: There are a lot of quality short-term options for the Packers in free agency. Everyone is going to label receiver Tee Higgins as the hottest name in the free agency class, but that’s mostly due to him only being a 26-year-old. If you want similar production, at least in 2025, you have options. The difference is that among the top six receivers in this metric, Higgins is going to be the only player under the age of 29 when the season starts. The next youngest, Chris Godwin, is going to be 29 and also coming off of a season-ending ankle dislocation to start 2025.
By these numbers, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Higgins and Godwin are all WR1 caliber pass-catchers who would be improvements over the non-Reed snaps that the Packers have fielded over the last two years. That’s strictly from a production perspective, though. The big question is if any of those aging players, sans Higgins, can still take the top off of the defense, which is what Green Bay needs out of a receiver addition more than anything.
Other Receiver Options
- +418.6: Davante Adams (14th)
- +299.9: Deebo Samuel (24th)
- +241.7: Cooper Kupp (31st)
It would be silly not to consider some of these options who aren’t technically free agents quite yet, too. The New York Jets and Davante Adams seem to be headed for a divorce, as the Jets have told quarterback Aaron Rodgers that they’re prepared to part ways. At the moment, Adams carries a $38.3 million cap hit in 2025, making him a prime candidate to be a cap casualty. According to the numbers, Adams would be the most productive free agent if he were to be released.
The San Francisco 49ers’ Deebo Samuel has already requested a trade, too, and the Los Angeles Rams are shopping Cooper Kupp. Like the top six free agents in this class, these three players also qualify as WR1-caliber producers who are better than the Packers’ non-Reed options. It’s also worth mentioning here that general manager Brian Gutekunst, who never speaks about players who aren’t on his roster, said in his end-of-season press conference that Samuel, as well as Seattle’s DK Metcalf, were players that he considered drafting when the Packers turned in their second-round pick for Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins in 2019. Cornerback Keisean Nixon, though, splashed some cold water on the idea of a Green Bay trade for Samuel on Twitter/X earlier this week.
Overall, this crop of receivers might be the strength of the offseason cycle. However, the market should still be competitive, as the receiver class of the upcoming draft is lacking, particularly in the traits that the Packers value. There are a lot of good veteran receivers out there. Do they bring the game-breaking speed that Green Bay desperately needs right now? The answer is no. What they’ll do with the cards dealt to them will be interesting to monitor.
