It’s early. It’s five games into a season that has 77 games to go. But for the Phoenix Suns, early returns are positive. The team sits at 4-1, with 3 of those victories coming against divisional opponents. And while we will see the Lakers once more this month — the teams play on November 26 in an NBA Cup game — we won’t see the Clippers again until the calendar is about to turn to February.
It hasn’t been smooth, but it has been successful. With all of the stats, both regular and advanced, that we delve into, we all know the only one that really matters is wins and losses. That being said, we starting to see small trends that are equating to success. One of those is the performance of the team in the fourth quarter.
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There’s no need to rehash the woes Phoenix faced in fourth-quarter play last season. The team finished with a league-worst -195 in the final period, ranked fourth in turnovers, sixth from the bottom in assists, and recorded the fifth-lowest field goal percentage. It was bad. It was annoying. It was frustrating.
But that’s the season. How about where we were at this time last season? Five games into the 2023-24 campaign, the Suns were 2-3. Games four and five were back-to-back losses to rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. Yeah, remember that?!
In those early games, the seeds of season-defining trends were already being sown before our eyes: poor spacing, frequent turnovers, heavy reliance on isolation, and a lack of cohesion. At the time, this seemed understandable since Bradley Beal hadn’t played in the first five games, and Devin Booker had only played two. But it turns out these issues were systemic.
Here’s where the Suns stood statistically in fourth quarters through the first five games:
- 22.0 points (29th)
- 4.4 turnovers (27th)
- 5.2 assists (22nd)
- 41.7 FG% (25th)
- -24 +/- (29th)
Go a little deeper. How did the Suns perform in the clutch through their first five games? How did they play in the last five minutes of games which the game was close, five points or less?
- 1-3 record
- 7.8 points (19th)
- 1.8 turnovers (24th)
- 1.8 assists (13th)
- 41.9 FG% (19th)
- -12 +/- (26th)
In short? They sucked. They lacked the ability to close. I remember writing the following about the team at the time:
Vogel is a defensive coach, right?
You could’ve fooled me. The Suns allowed the Spurs to score 75 first-half points and 132 points overall. The Spurs. This team scored 83 points in a 40-point loss prior to two wins in Phoenix. Yes, Wemby went nuclear, but it was his cohorts in crime that stabbed the Suns in the back a la Brute.
The defense was, quite simply, putrid. While the Suns played with energy, they looked like the team that earned a lottery pick last season with the way they rotated and collapsed on the defensive end. Time and again the Spurs whipped the ball around and the result was a Phoenix defender out of position.
The Spurs shot 18-of-37 (48.6%) from beyond the arc. Very few were contested. After surrendering 19 wide open three-pointers to the Spurs on Tuesday night, they followed it up by permitting Pop’s team to shoot 24 wide open three’s on Thursday.
After posting a defensive rating of 100.7 in their first three games, the Suns have surrendered 123.5 points to the Spurs and have a defensive rating of 122.3. Frank Vogel has some work to do to right the ship and coach the team into a cohesive defensive unit.
Again, you could blame the lack of early-season execution on the availability of their stars, but the Suns continued to play poorly, especially in the fourth, the entire season long. It became a running joke.
A year later, we have seen substantial improvement. Dare I say, and heir of confidence exists?
There was no sense of worry late in the Suns’ Halloween victory over the Clippers as they held a 115-112 lead. With Tyus Jones on the court, he ran a set that delivered exactly what they needed: a three-pointer by Royce O’Neale.
The difference? Well-organized, well-coached, and well-executed fourth quarters. And the statistics — most importantly in the win column — are following:
- 30.4 points (7th)
- 3.2 turnovers (9th)
- 6.6 assists (7th)
- 49.0 FG% (9th)
- +17 +/- (4th)
And this season’s clutch time Suns?
- 3-0 record
- 15.3 points (5th)
- 1.7 turnovers (25th)
- 1.7 assists (13th)
- 41.9 FG% (11th)
- +17 +/- (1st)
There is clear direction in the fourth, and it starts with Tyus Jones. Tyus is a +16 in the fourth this season with 8 assists and 1 turnover.
“Making the right reads,” Tyus Jones said after Thursday’s win. “Taking what the defense is giving us. Touch the paint, and that collapses the defense. When that happens, we’re able to get swings, we’re able to get penetrate and kicks.”
Jones is complemented by the Big Three, but it is Royce O’Neale who has truly taken advantage. When the gravity of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and (when healthy) Bradley Beal pulls defenders off of him, Royce takes advantage. He is second in the NBA with a +35 in the fourth this season, trailing only the +38 of Jaylen Brown.
There’s still a long road ahead, with plenty of plot twists left in our story. But you can almost feel the blueprint for success drawing itself out. It’s like the Suns finally found the instructions. The path to winning is getting clearer, sharper, and just might have that GPS-like confidence to guide us straight to victory (hopefully without too many “recalculating” moments).
