Previewing UVA basketball’s Friday evening showdown against Villanova

The Virginia Cavaliers will face their first true test of the season against a hungry Villanova Wildcats team in need of a statement win.

UVA comfortably handled Coppin State on Monday despite shooting just 40.4% from the field. Several of Virginia’s incoming transfers shined. Forward Elijah Saunders led the team in scoring with 15 points (5-for-9 shooting) and an additional five rebounds. Point guard Dai Dai Ames started in place of an injured Andrew Rohde, and it looks like he won’t be giving the job back anytime soon as he carved into the paint all night with 13 points and a pair of threes.

This won’t be the top 10, elite offense and defense battle of 2017 or 2018 between Virginia and Villanova, because Hall of Fame coaches Tony Bennett and Jay Wright aren’t at the helm anymore. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot at stake for third-year Villanova coach Kyle Neptune and first-year Virginia coach Ron Sanchez. Both teams will be fighting to make the NCAA Tournament this season, and early season wins like this go a long way in building a resume.

Here are three things to know, two players to watch, and one prediction for Friday’s game in Baltimore.

Three Things to Know

Villanova Coach Kyle Neptune is officially on the hot seat

Things are looking grim for Kyle Neptune, who entered this season with a lot to prove to a frustrated Villanova basketball fanbase. Neptune was chosen as Jay Wright’s replacement when the Hall of Fame coach shockingly announced his retirement after the 2022 season. He was an assistant under Wright for eight years — and similar to Virginia’s situation with Ron Sanchez — the program hoped that he could continue what Jay Wright built at Villanova.

Unfortunately, it’s been a rocky few years for Neptune, as his Wildcats missed the NCAA Tournament each of his first two seasons, finishing 17-17 and 18-16, respectively. To make matters worse, Villanova is just 2-2 on the season, with upset losses at the hands of Columbia (90-80) and Philadelphia rival St. Joe’s (83-76).

It’s not an overstatement to say that Neptune has the hottest seat in Division I basketball right now.

Virginia better be ready to defend the three

For the better part of the last decade, Villanova has been one of the premier three-point shooting teams in the nation. Jay Wright encouraged his guards and bigs to shoot threes early and often, a trend that’s only grown in college basketball over the last few years (thanks to Steph Curry and the splash brothers, and also Daryl Morey if you want to research him). If there’s a sliver of an opening, Villanova players will fire up a three ball, especially on inside-out passes from the post.

Per KenPom, they were 11th in Division I in three-pointers attempted per field goal attempts, with 48% of their total shot attempts coming from beyond the arc last season. They were 7th in that category the year before. It’s safe to say Kyle Neptune is still giving out the universal green light, even if Villanova is making those threes at a much lower rate.

One of the Virginia’s Pack Line defense’s few weaknesses is its susceptibility to quick passes on the perimeter leading to open three-pointers. On top of that, if the ’Hoos double Eric Dixon or others in the post, Villanova will look to kick the ball out to the open three-point shooter. If Villanova wins this game, it will be because they’re hunting and making lots of threes. This Virginia team filled with new and young faces will need to be quick in their defensive rotations, closing out on shooters aggressively all game.

Villanova’s offense has lost its identity

Jay Wright was a brilliant offensive mind. He went against the basketball standard by frequently inverting the role of guards and big men, teaching his bigger guards to play out of the post, while simultaneously using his big men as threats around the perimeter. Former Villanova point guard and two-time national champion Jalen Brunson still dominates in the post at the NBA level.

Additionally, Wright’s 4 out 1 in motion offense was beautiful when it was run correctly (just like Tony Bennett’s old mover-blocker). It created spacing unlike any other college offense, allowing for tons of different ball-screen iterations and producing lots of open threes. Here’s a quick look at the offense from Jay Wright’s last season in 2022 (notice #43 Eric Dixon).

Under Kyle Neptune, the offense has lost its identity. They run much more 5-out offense, using high ball screens to initiate the offense. What usually happens is the offense stagnates, with two or three guys standing around on the perimeter, waiting for someone to make a play out of the ball screen, and they’ll often settle for a contested mid-range jumper (not unlike Virginia over the last few years).

If fluidity defined the Jay Wright offense, then Neptune’s offense could be characterized as invariable. He’s dealt with the college-wide struggle of building new rosters each season, which inhibits the ability to instill an offensive system, but there’s no reason the offense should look as lifeless as it does right now.

Two Players to Watch

Forward Eric Dixon (#43)

If I could write about Villanova’s fifth-year senior star two times instead of including another player to watch I would, because he does literally everything for the Wildcats. Their entire offense revolves around the stretch forward, who leads the team in points with a whopping 26.3 points per game, and rebounds at 8.3 per game. Oh, and he’s also making over three three-pointers per game at a 52.6% clip.

Villanova has always loved big men who can play inside out, forcing bigger, slower defenders to come out and defend them on the three-point line. Dixon is a beast at 6-foot-8, 260 pounds, so the ’Hoos will have to defend him with their bigs (I expect Saunders to match up with him). Their bread-and-butter play is a pick and pop, where Dixon sets the screen, pops out to the wing, and buries a catch-and-shoot three ball.

While he kills you on the perimeter, he can also use his size to back down weaker defenders. He’s got a plethora of moves in the paint, from a knockdown post fade, to a jump hook, to a deadly spin move where he can finish on either side of the basket. This highlight reel showcases all his moves in a 32-point performance against Creighton last season.

Blake Buchanan will need to provide support down low, making sure to stay straight up and use his length to bother Dixon, especially if Saunders is matching up with him one-on-one.

Guard Wooga Poplar (#5)

One of the fun perks of the transfer-portal era is recognizing a player from a familiar team when they switch to a different team that Virginia ends up playing. Poplar played three seasons at Miami before transferring to Villanova for his senior year. It seems like a great fit so far, as he’s the second-leading scorer on the team with a career best 15.3 points per game.

Poplar’s got an NBA-caliber frame with the moves and instincts of a potential NBA player. He’s 6-foot-5 with a wingspan close to 6-foot-10, which becomes pretty easy to notice when he snags offensive rebounds and deflects passes. He’s an effort and energy guy on both sides of the floor, creating second chances on offense and sparking fast-break opportunities with his defense.

Poplar’s explosive crossover and long strides make it difficult for smaller guards to defend him, and he can finish around the rim over taller defenders. And just like every Miami guard over the last few years, he’ll shoot the ball from anywhere on the court with the utmost confidence. He’s been around a 37-39% three-point shooter the last couple of seasons, and he can do it off the dribble or the catch.

One Prediction

This has the makings of an ugly, back-and-forth battle that will come down to the final five minutes. Both teams play at a slow pace, so I expect this game to be decided in the half court. Virginia will need to exploit a vulnerable Villanova defense and hit their open three-pointers.

In the end, I think we get a vintage Isaac McKneely game, where he proves why he’s one of the best shooters in the nation. Dixon will stuff the stat sheet for Villanova, but the Cavaliers new transfers will make a big impact.

Prediction: Virginia 65, Villanova 60