The Detroit Tigers need reinforcements for their starting rotation. Long-time Los Angeles Dodgers ace Walker Buehler is looking for a team to help him get back to form and earn the big free agent deal he was denied by injury. While Buehler has had more success in his career to date, it’s not a dissimilar position to the one in which Jack Flaherty found himself last offseason. Buehler makes for a very sensible target for Scott Harris in free agency, and the right-hander would be wise to seriously consider Detroit as a destination.
There aren’t many teams as likely as the Tigers to help Walker Buehler embark on a strong second act in his career, and the right-hander has good reason to know this already.
Buehler was the Dodgers first round pick back in 2015. The Dodgers picked the Vanderbilt ace even knowing he’d need Tommy John surgery immediately. At the time, Chris Fetter was a scout for the Dodgers, while current Tigers’ Director of Pitching, Gabe Ribas, was the Dodgers minor league pitching coordinator. Buehler thus worked with Ribas right from the start of his pro career as he rehabbed the UCL reconstruction in 2015 and all through 2016 before making his pro debut the next year. He’ll also be familiar with Fetter’s record since moving to coaching full-time through their shared Dodgers contacts and connections.
Last offseason, Flaherty was the prize acquisition project for the Tigers. Hinch took his pitching coaches’ plan to Flaherty in a recruiting meeting as the Tigers’ manager worked to sell Flaherty on the idea of joining the Tigers. It worked, as the right-hander signed a one-year deal for $15 million, and he quickly saw the benefits of the Tigers coaching.
Fetter and his staff encouraged Flaherty to stop throwing his cutter, believing that his release on that pitch was impacting the quality of his fourseam fastball. Instead, they had the right-hander lean into his slider and curveball more often. That simplified mix and some adjustments in his mechanics, specifically his lead leg blocking, led to Flaherty’s best season by far since 2019. He was eventually traded into the Dodgers’ rotation alongside Buehler and they went on to win a World Series together. Flaherty is now looking for a nine figure contract this offseason, and should at least get close.
Walker Buehler could very well follow a similar path by signing with the Tigers this offseason, but his situation is a little different.
While Flaherty posted one great season in 2019, and then spent years trying to get back to that level through a litany of shoulder issues, Buehler burst into the league in 2018 and quickly established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers over the next few seasons. His outstanding riding fourseam fastball became a prototype for pairing high spin fastballs with a lower release point to gain maximum bat-missing efficiency up in the zone, Buehler backed that high 95-99 mph gas with a lethal, high-spin slider and curveball combination.
For several seasons, Buehler ranked among the game’s top strikeout artists. He finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2018, and over the next four seasons put up a combined 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP, winning his first World Series ring with the Dodgers in 2020.
Buehler appeared on a fast track to a massive extension and the title of heir apparent to Clayton Kershaw in LA, but trouble struck in 2022 when he tore his UCL and eventually required the second Tommy John surgery of his career that August. The timing couldn’t have been much worse as he missed all of the 2023 season and came into 2024 on the comeback trail, trying to pitch well enough to go into free agency in a good position to land a big contract. The first year back from UCL reconstruction is often a difficult one, and things didn’t work out as planned.
Buehler needed some rehab starts to tune up for the season and didn’t debut until May 6. From that point until June 18, he was pretty badly knocked around. The strikeouts were down from his previous standard and he gave up a lot of home runs. A hip injury and more rehab work followed, but even down the stretch he was getting hit hard. Things didn’t really turn around for him until the Dodgers reached the NLCS against the Phillies, where a short but strong Game 3 outing finally saw him looking more like his old self. A dominant two-hit performance in Game 3 of the World Series followed, and Buehler would ultimately close out the World Series with a save in Game 5, striking out the final two Yankees’ hitters he faced.
That glimmer of improving performance in October was enough to make Buehler a more attractive reclamation project this offseason, but he won’t be signing a major, multi-year deal. Instead, he’ll most likely book a one-year deal with a team he feels can help him get back on top in 2025, hoping to return to free agency and cash in big next year.
Walker Buehler 2020-2024
Season IP ERA FIP K% BB% HR/9 WHIP fWAR
2020 36.2 3.44 4.36 28.6 7.5 1.72 0.95 0.6
2021 207.2 2.47 3.16 26.0 6.4 0.82 0.97 5.6
2022 65.0 4.02 3.80 21.2 6.2 1.11 1.29 1.0
2024 75.1 5.38 5.54 18.6 8.1 1.91 1.55 -0.2
Tuning up Walker Buehler
There are plenty of similarities between Buehler and Flaherty as pitchers as well, and this points toward a few tweaks the Tigers might make with Buehler. Neither pitcher throws much of a changeup or anything with arm side run. Instead both of them are dedicated supinators with high spin breaking balls leading their arsenals. They’re far more comfortable turning a doorknob clockwise than the reverse. They’re more in the Justin Verlander, Nolan Ryan, power right-hander style of pitcher.
As a result, they weren’t going to become sinker-changeup guys. As each struggled with injury and saw their fourseamers decline in quality, both turned to using a low 90’s cutter and trimming their fastball usage, with mediocre results.
The Tigers had Flaherty ditch his cutter immediately, feeling that throwing that pitch was bleeding into his fourseamer release. They seem to have been right, as Flaherty had several good stretches where he got more ride on the fastball and was finally missing some bats after years of taking a lot of damage against it. Probably they would like to do the same thing with Buehler, as his approach has always been out high fourseamers in and out and breaking off big curves and sharp sliders off the same eyelines to hitters. Once a poster boy for getting elite induced vertical break on his fourseamer, Buehler has thrown more and more cutters each year, and his fastball quality has declined at the same time.
Part of that decline is due to the loss of a little velocity. Since averaging 96.8 mph in 2020, Buehler’s fastball velocity started to decline even before the UCL injury. This season, he returned to the game still throwing reasonably hard, as he averaged 95 mph, but it’s not quite the monster fastball it was in his best seasons. On the other hand, Buehler has compensated by gaining a few inches of extension, and that’s another area where the Tigers have shown they can help a pitcher improve.
In his second year after Tommy John surgery, it’s possible the Tigers could help Buehler get the best of both worlds, finding more velocity again while maintaining or even building on his extension gains. While the decline in strikeouts and some walk issues early on didn’t help, Buehler’s big problem in 2024 was a tendency to give up home runs off the fourseam fastball. One specific thing Chris Fetter’s staff has excelled at across the board is helping their pitchers get home run problems with fastballs back under control through a mix of pitch design and sequencing.
So, there’s one plan. Ditch the cutter, lean back into throwing a heavy volume of fourseamers. It was only a few postseason outings, but Buehler seemed to be getting there in October, and he added two inches of induced vertical break as compared to his marks from the regular season. Suddenly he was throwing a pretty dominant fastball again. Presumably the command and a little more velocity will come with it in his second year back on the mound, but even if it doesn’t, the improved IVB marks are enough to make it much better fastball that it was during the regular season. Teams took notice of that specific metric, and interest increased in Buehler on that alone.
As for Buehler’s secondary pitches, not a whole needs to be done. He needs to command his sweeper and knuckle curve a little better, but they’re still very good. If the fastball gets back to more of its old effectiveness, and Buehler’s improved IVB in playoffs showed it tracking in the right direction at season’s end, both breaking balls should benefit as well.
Buehler may never get back to punching out 28-29 percent of hitters, as he did as his peak, but he should be able to get close. Like a lot of high spin pitchers, Buehler saw a bit of a decline in spin rate after the league cracked down on the use of substances like Spider Tack or Firm Grip to help spin the ball more quickly. His formerly lethal knuckle curve and slider combination is now a good knuckle curve and sweeper pairing. Still, he remains well above average in terms of ripping off high spin breakers, and if they can help get a little post-TJ velocity back, Walker Buehler should look quite like his old self again.
Certainly it’s also possible that at 30 years old and after two UCL reconstructions, there’s just no getting all the way back, but the late season improvement and Buehler’s long established track record bodes pretty well for him next season. The Tigers are an ideal location for him to take the next step in his comeback story.
Terms and conditions
Right now, the Tigers’ starting rotation is Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson. Everything else is still up in the air. Jackson Jobe will have every opportunity to join them full-time in his rookie season. Beyond them, the Tigers have plenty of interesting options, but no established locks for the starting five.
Casey Mize appears somewhat likely to get one more shot to find some added swing and miss in his game in his own second year after Tommy John surgery. Keider Montero and Brant Hurter should make for quality backend starters, and both have the stuff to advance their game this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if either or both took a step up and pitched well in a starting role. Beyond them there is still Kenta Maeda, Matt Manning, Ty Madden, as well as Sawyer Gipson-Long potentially returning from his own UCL reconstruction in the summer of ‘25. Finally, while I wouldn’t expect too much out of him this season, right-handed pitching prospect Troy Melton should be in Triple-A, and doesn’t have to improve that much to be a usable depth starter at the major league level.
The Tigers have plenty of depth. They’re already in better shape in that department than they were last year now that numerous prospects have gotten their feet wet. It certainly wouldn’t hurt to add another backend starter, but what they really need is one more frontline starting pitcher. Getting the best pitcher they can land in free agency without making a massive commitment should be the goal.
There are other options beyond Buehler for a good starter on a short term deal, but in just about every case, say Jack Flaherty himself or someone like Sean Manaea or Nathan Eovaldi, those players will be looking for 3-5 year deals. Buehler is widely expected to get a one-year prove it deal, possibly with a second year attached or at least an option with a buyout included. Unless the Tigers shock us with a couple of really big signings elsewhere, he’s easily in the Tigers wheelhouse in terms of cost, and he may be the one arm available with the upside of a strong #2 behind Tarik Skubal who isn’t going to require a major commitment.
The fit is pretty good for both parties, but Buehler will have multiple suitors. While the Dodgers have reportedly moved on, the Atlanta Braves and a few other teams have a least been reported as having interest in Buehler this offseason. If the Tigers really want him, they need to pursue him as aggressively as they did with Flaherty, and this time, it would probably be advisable to pay what it takes to get a second year, or at least an option for one, attached if possible.
Certain teams who trust Buehler’s postseason resurgence are going to value him pretty highly this offseason. The term won’t be more than a year or two, but the cost per year might be surprising. He might get as much as $20 million for one year and beat Flaherty’s number by a lot, but Walker Buehler is a more talented pitcher. The risk is low considering the potential reward, and the Tigers make a lot of sense for Buehler as well. There may just be other contenders out there he prefers instead.
