Championship promotion landscape changes as Leeds United receive title boost

Forty two matches down. Four to go.

Leeds United underlined their title credentials last weekend, seeing off Preston North End 2-1 at Elland Road to move back to the top of the table. It means Daniel Farke’s team are currently five points clear of third-placed Sheffield United in the race for automatic promotion with a far superior goal difference.

Bookmakers Betfred’s automatic promotion market indicates that the Whites and Burnley are both almost certain to return to the Premier League next season, with both sides coming into 1/25 and 1/20 from 1/12 and 2/9 respectively. Leeds, who visit Oxford United on Good Friday before hosting Stoke City on Easter Monday, remain favourites to secure the title and have been cut into 4/11 from 1/2 after the Preston success.

After suffering a third defeat in succession at the weekend, Sheffield United are odds-against to go up for the first time this year. Betfred’s Robert Ford said: “Plymouth Argyle’s comeback in the last ten minutes on Saturday resulted in Sheffield United suffering their third consecutive league defeat and it’s had a big impact on our title, automatic promotion and promotion markets, respectively.

“Chris Wilder’s side are odds-against to go up for the first time this year, drifting from 5/6 to 11/8, with the play-offs now looking like the best chance of promotion for the Blades as they’re currently five points off the automatic promotion places with four games to go. Their latest defeat has seen them dramatically drift from 8/1 to 66/1 to win the title, cutting their probability by just under 10%, whilst they now have a 12.5% chance of securing automatic promotion, which has decreased by over 20%, as they’ve been pushed out to 7/1 from 7/4.

“Sheffield United’s fall off has only strengthened Leeds United and Burnley’s promotion prospects. Both sides remain odds-on to go up automatically, with Leeds coming into 1/25 from 1/12 and Burnley coming into 1/20 from 2/9. Daniel Farke’s side are 4/11 to secure the title, which has improved their chances by just under 7%, as the second-placed side have come into 2/1 from 9/4. The league leaders and the Clarets almost look nailed on for promotion and in this market they’ve both come into 1/25 and 1/20 from 1/12 and 2/9, respectively.

“Elsewhere in the promotion market, Sunderland have drifted out to 9/4 after suffering their third consecutive defeat to in-form Swansea City, whilst Bristol City and Coventry City remain at 5/1 and 11/2 after both sides drew 1-1 on the road to QPR and Hull City. Millwall’s victory against Middlesbrough has shot them into 40/1 from 150/1 and has resulted in their opponents drifting back into 12/1 from 13/2. West Bromwich Albion are also back into 12s from 18s thanks to their 2-1 win over Watford on Saturday.”

Championship title odds:

Leeds United – 4/11 from 1/2 (73.3% probability from 66.7%)

Burnley – 2/1 from 9/4 (33.3% probability from 30.8%)

Sheffield United – 66/1 from 8/1 (1.5% probability from 11.1%)

Championship top two odds:

Leeds United – 1/25 from 1/12 (96.2% probability from 92.3%)

Burnley – 1/20 from 2/9 (95.2% probability from 81.8%)

Sheffield United – 7/1 from 7/4 (12.5% probability from 36.4%)

Championship promotion odds:

Leeds United – 1/33 from 1/20 (97.1% probability from 95.2%)

Burnley – 1/20 from 1/8 (95.2% probability from 88.9%)

Sheffield United – 11/8 from 5/6 (42.1% probability from 54.5%)

Sunderland – 9/4 from 2/1 (30.8% probability from 33.3%)

Bristol City – 5/1 (16.7% probability)

Coventry City – 11/2 (15.4% probability)

Middlesbrough – 12/1 from 13/2 (7.7% probability from 13.3%)

West Bromwich Albion – 12/1 from 18/1 (7.7% probability from 5.3%)

Millwall – 40/1 from 150/1 (2.4% probability from 0.7%)