There has been a lot of talk on both sides of the Nico Collins extension. I always prefer to wait at least 24 hours for the dust to settle before doing any hard hitting analysis. Analysis and emotion are mortal enemies. Obviously, every move evokes some kind of emotional response. It could range from, “let’s fricking go!” to “what in the kittens are they thinking?” Usually these things wind up somewhere in the middle.
The great Bill James (of sabermetrics fame) has more or less retired. He is 74 and recently had a stroke. For those not familiar with his work. he pioneered advanced baseball statistics and that obviously has seeped into the football and basketball worlds. I’d assume hockey as well, but who really cares about hockey?
One of his inventions is something that he called “similarity scores”. The idea was simple. Players got points across the different statistical categories for how closely they resembled another player. In his case. a 1,000 score meant you were identical twins separated at birth. Any score of 900 or higher is pretty darn similar.
The idea behind this analysis is easy enough. We have emotional connections to our guys. It only makes sense then to try to compare them with someone similar that we don’t have an emotional connection with. He used it for the purposes of determining whether someone should be in the baseball Hall of Fame. We will use it to see which wide receivers in the NFL Collins was most similar to last year.
We are following two rules. First, we are only looking at last year. We could go into the blame game for 2021 and 2022 but it really doesn’t matter. The Houston Texans themselves have decided that those particular seasons aren’t relevant in terms of gauging contract value. Wise? I can see both sides of the debate. The second rule is we are only going to look at catches, yards, and touchdowns. Obviously, we could dive into catch percentage, yards per target, and success percentage as well, but let’s keep things simple for now.
The methodology is simple. We simply take the two players above him and below him in the standings for that particular stat. If we see a name mentioned more than once then it is a good bet that those players are similar. From there, we can both evaluate the contracts for those players and also get a better handle of where Collins rates in the wide receiver universe.
Catches
Mike Evans: 79
Tyler Lockett: 79
Nico Collins: 80
DeVonte Smith: 81
Chris Godwin: 83
Devante Smith and Mike Evans just signed deals this offseason so in terms of the NFL calendar and timeline they are the most relevant. Lockett has not signed a deal recently and Godwin signed one in a previous offseason. Before we dive too much into their numbers we should take a look at the other two categories to see if their names pop up again.
Yards
D.J. Moore: 1364
Brandon Aiyuk: 1342
Nico Collins: 1297
Mike Evans: 1255
Amari Cooper: 1250
We see Mike Evans name again. It looks pretty likely that he will be one of the receivers we end up profiling. Moore is another interesting name because he is in a similar situation with a promising young quarterback and a loaded receiving core. It will be interesting to see what these two will do this year in their respective offenses. Aiyuk obviously hasn’t been paid yet and with Deebo Samuel also in San Francisco, that is a long-term situation to keep an eye on.
Touchdowns
Devante Adams: 8
D.K. Metcalf: 8
Nico Collins: 8
Brandin Cooks: 8
Stefon Diggs: 8
It should be noted that more than five guys caught eight touchdown passes last season. Calvin Ridley and Romeo Doubs also caught eight touchdown passes. The aforementioned Moore caught nine touchdowns in Chicago, so they end up pretty close. Evans caught 13 in Tampa, so that is outside of the immediate range, but Collins and Evans were similar in yards and catches.
Most Immediate Comparisons
Nico Collins: 3/72
Mike Evans: 2/52
DJ Moore: 3/62
So, we are looking at a 20.67 AAV for Moore and a 26.0 AAV for Mike Evans. Nico Collins fits pretty comfortably there. One of the things I like to do is play agent and in the NFL we know it’s a leapfrog business. I usually attach a five percent per year inflation rate on the salary. Moore’s contract was signed before the 2022 season and goes through 2025. If I had ten percent (five percent times two) I get an a 22.67 AAV. That’s pretty darn close to what Collins got this week. Evans got more but also got one fewer season. He is also on the wrong side of 30 and that matters.
Other Comparisons
We did see some names come up once that we should add to our analysis. Guys like DeVonte Smith, Amari Cooper, and DJ Metcalf feel relevant for a number of reasons. Just as a reminder, here were their collective numbers across the board so we can make a more realistic comparison.
Amari Cooper: 72 catches, 1,250 yards, 5 TD
DeVonte Smith: 81 catches, 1,066 yards, 7 TD
D.K. Metcalf:: 66 catches, 1,114 yards. 8 TD
Obviously all three match to a greater or lesser extent. If we look at their contract numbers we will see how close Collins comes to getting there. So, I will essentially do the same multiplier of five percent per year for players that have signed their deals before this season.
Cooper: 5/100, 20.0 base AAV, 1.20 inflation, 24.0 adjusted AAV
Smith: 3/75, 25.0 base AAV, no multiplier, 25.0 adjusted AAV
Metcalf: 3/72, 24.0 base AAV, 1.10 inflation, 26.4 adjusted AAV
As you can see, Collins fits very comfortably in this group as well. If we are comparing his contracts directly to Smith and Evans (because they signed this spring) then everything fits very comfortably. The question is whether we firmly believe he will continue to produce at this level. This cuts both ways. C.J. Stroud is bound to improve and the offense has more weapons, so Collins might find himself open more often. However, there are more mouths to feed, so he could see a reduction in production.
We can feel a certain way about being the seventh highest paid receiver, but it’s a snapshot in time. Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, JaMarr Chase, and Ceedee Lamb are all due big money extensions either before this season or immediately following the season. All are likely to get more than Collins got. This doesn’t even include Stefon Diggs impending free agency. It is just as likely that he will be somewhere around 12th or 13th in total contract value just one year from now. That feels about right to me and if he has another season like this past year then it feels like he is in the right spot financially.
