Mark Pope has been making plenty of headlines on the recruiting trail over the last several weeks. He’s already landed a pair of Top 30 recruits and has Kentucky in great shape with a few more. He’s yet to coach a game in Lexington, but the future certainly appears to be bright.
Just how bright will it be in the immediate though? The start of the regular season is still roughly seven weeks out. Pope has retooled the entire roster, bringi
But we can at least take some guesses. Bart Torvik did that dirty work for us. Using his computer-generated stats, he’s able to project the 2024-25 regular season records of every Division I team in the country. Here is how the numbers expect Kentucky to perform this season:
| DATE | MATCHUP | BART TORVIK PREDICTION |
| 11/4 | vs. Wright State | 93-72 W |
| 11/9 | vs. Bucknell | 89-66 W |
| 11/12 | vs. Duke (Atlanta) | 81-74 L |
| 11/19 | vs. Lipscomb | 91-75 W |
| 11/22 | vs. Jackson State | 92-65 W |
| 11/26 | vs. Western Kentucky | 87-75 W |
| 11/29 | vs. Georgia State | 91-69 W |
| 12/3 | @ Clemson | 77-76 L |
| 12/7 | vs. Gonzaga (Seattle) | 82-80 L |
| 12/11 | vs. Colgate | 86-66 W |
| 12/14 | vs. Louisville | 87-78 W |
| 12/21 | vs. Ohio State (New York City) | 80-78 W |
| 12/31 | vs. Brown | 87-69 W |
| 1/4 | vs. Florida | 83-77 W |
| 1/7 (or 1/8) | @ Georgia | 79-77 L |
| 1/11 | @ Mississippi State | 81-77 L |
| 1/14 (or 1/15) | vs. Texas A&M | 78-75 W |
| 1/18 | vs. Alabama | 85-83 W |
| 1/25 | @ Vanderbilt | 82-81 W |
| 1/28 | @ Tennessee | 81-74 L |
| 2/1 | vs. Arkansas | 83-78 W |
| 2/4 | @ Ole Miss | 81-79 L |
| 2/8 | vs. South Carolina | 81-73 W |
| 2/11 | vs. Tennessee | 78-77 W |
| 2/15 | @ Texas | 81-75 L |
| 2/18 | vs. Vanderbilt | 87-77 W |
| 2/22 | @ Alabama | 88-81 L |
| 2/25 | @ Oklahoma | 87-77 L |
| 3/1 | vs. Auburn | 81-80 W |
| 3/4 | vs. LSU | 83-74 W |
| 3/8 | @ Missouri | 82-21 W |
FINAL RECORD: 20-11 (10-8 SEC)
Let’s parse through these projected results a little bit further. Bart Torvik has the Wildcats losing three of its five non-conference games against high-major opponents with wins over Ohio State and Louisville along with losses to Duke, Clemson, and Gonzaga (all losses are away from home).
Looking at the SEC portion of the schedule, the numbers predict losses on the road to both the league’s newcomers, Texas and Oklahoma. It also says Kentucky will split its series against Alabama and Tennessee, winning both of the matchups at Rupp Arena. Notably, UK is projected to take down John Calipari‘s Arkansas team in his return to Lexington, 83-78. The ‘Cats are also a projected one-point favorite to beat Auburn at home.
Kentucky is not projected to lose more than two games in a row at any point this season, either. But the win-loss record isn’t the only thing Bart Torvik can predict.
The numbers also have player projections. Andrew Carr is the projected top contributor on this team, followed by (in order) Jaxson Robinson, Kerr Kriisa, Koby Brea, and Lamont Butler to round out the top five. After that, the numbers project Otega Oweh to be the sixth-most impactful Wildcat, Brandon Garrison as the seventh-most, Collin Chandler as the eighth-most, Amari Williams (surprisingly) as the ninth-most, and Travis Perry as the 10th-most.
Put it all together and Bart Torvik foresees Kentucky having the 25th-best offense and defense in the country. The preseason numbers give the Wildcats an 82.4 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament (and a 7.4 percent chance to win the SEC Tournament) with an average seed projection of 5.2.
Agree or disagree?
