The NIL world that ultimately drove Coach Tony Bennett to retirement will eventually slow down to some extent, yet it does not mean that a level playing field will exist. Come 2025-26, a revenue-sharing model as per a House settlement will allow schools within major conferences a pool of roughly $20 million to allocate among the sports within their athletic departments, i.e. football and men’s basketball. Schools such as Virginia, which have excelled notably within the Olympic sports, still operate in the green on behalf of the two aforementioned moneymakers.
However, a supposed salary cap will fall prey to third-party players. Players will still have the option to negotiate deals with businesses outside of the revenue already received from the shared model, so long as those deals reflect fair market value and are reported to a database above $600. This will aim to eliminate the current practice of pay-for-play. Now, will schools become adept at concealing deals which are pay-for-play, i.e. a booster promising millions for a certain player without a specific business end? No doubt. Will the NCAA safeguard against schools looking to gain any competitive advantage? That remains to be seen.
Alas, Athletics Director Carla Williams and her staff are at a critical juncture which will decide the future of Virginia’s athletics program. The University has always done things differently, whether it be through high-level academic standards or Coach Tony Bennett’s unique system of development that pushed against one-and-done structures.
If Virginia wants to adapt to the current landscape within men’s college basketball, there are two streets available, one of which I assume the athletics department will hope to take. While NIL plays second-fiddle to football within Division I programs, a few programs have remained alive (and well) while following a model oddly similar to that of Bennett throughout the 2010, relying on player development, retainment, and transfers slated to fill certain roles. NIL hasn’t played as great of a role in each program’s success as it has in others.
Here are a few “case studies” of culture-rich schools — reliant less on money than scheme and fit within a system — which ought to bring some hope back to a men’s basketball program dealing with a few question marks, especially regarding stiff NIL competition from other major-conference universities.
*Outside of San Diego State, all of these schools have posted a higher win percentage over the past three years (NIL/transfer portal era) than in the three years prior to 2021-22. Also, a recent article from Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander polled more than 100 college coaches regarding the top NIL performers within men’s college basketball, with 27 schools listed — none of the five below, however, appeared. Each of the five finished last season in the top-20 of the AP Poll, with three finishing in the top ten.
Category One: Frequent Portalers, Defensive Mainstays
1. San Diego State, 75% win percentage since 2021-22 (78.7% prior)
The Virginia of the West, the Aztecs have not strayed from a defensive-oriented style. Albeit competing in the weaker Mountain West, Coach Brian Dutcher has steered his teams to a National Championship appearance and a Sweet Sixteen berth since NIL took off; moreover, Virginia’s NIL resources can certainly compete with the likes of the Aztecs. Player development and retainment (although this year’s roster reflects some major turnover) remains a relative strength within a world in which players come and go as they please.
This isn’t to suggest that the ‘Hoos will look to hire Dutcher if things go south, but San Diego State provides a glimmer of hope to schools hoping to retain their identity. Defense, hustle, and sacrifice come to mind as pillars of the Aztec program — not a far cry from Virginia’s. The Flying Dutchman brought players in from universities such as Seattle, Oakland, Cal, and TCU over the past few seasons, turning them into National Championship contenders with the Aztecs. Frequent portaling can have its benefits if you find those hidden gems on the recruiting trail, and, more importantly, keep them in-house for multiple years.
2. Iowa State, 66.7% since 2021-22 (40.7% prior)
The Cyclones faced a Louisville-esque situation following their 2-22 campaign in 2020-21. Coach T.J. Otzelberger replaced a reeling Steve Prohm and immediately got Iowa State back to its winning ways, implementing a tenacious defensive style and picking up lesser-known portalers who’d be willing — as in Dutcher’s system — to do the little things right. This identity has yielded incredibly impressive results in his three-year tenure, including a second-place regular-season finish in the Big 12 and a conference title last year.
Otzelberger has established himself by “building the best defense in college basketball and finding hidden gems on the recruiting trail,” remarked The Athletic’s CJ Moore. “He doesn’t want guys who prioritize NIL or want to be promised anything. He prefers telling recruits the truth and then seeing if they agree with his assessment.”
Sounds a bit like a tactic which Bennett (and now, perhaps Sanchez) would relish within this money-crazy landscape. If you build a culture without NIL, you must take a certain path for those to follow — in this case, churning lesser-known talent into players which fit your system to the T.
Category 2: Picky Portalers, Emphasis on Player Development
1. Houston, 86.6% since 2021-22 (84.0% prior)
Consistency is key within Coach Kelvin Sampson’s program. Thanks to a pressure-heavy defense, emphasis on physicality, and deliberate selection of contributors via the portal, the Cougars have blitzed their way through regular seasons both in the American and now the Big 12. They don’t recruit at the level of a Duke or UConn, yet Sampson doesn’t seem to care — they have a higher win % over the past three years, and their players have fully invested in a system that rewards hustle and grit. Look no further than 6’1’’ Jamal Shead, the reigning National Defensive Player of the Year and the 191st overall prospect in his class coming out of high school.
Sampson, like the others below, has taken great care to retain players through their upperclass years; however, he’ll replace his stars (Shead and guard Marcus Sasser) with portalers if he feels it will not sacrifice the defensive-oriented system. Oklahoma’s Milos Uzan now has the massive task of replacing Shead, while ex-Baylor guard LJ Cryer has filled in admirably for Sasser.
The NIL resources aren’t limitless in Houston, but, of course, they’re still necessary to attract recruits. Instead of relying on the portal and other promises, Sampson’s history of winning ought to do enough to pull in prospects willing to work defensively before moving onto the league. They are the antithesis of an Alabama or an Arkansas — both portal/NIL havens — yet they bulldoze their way through competition every single year.
2. Purdue, 82.9% since 2021-22 (63.2% prior)
Arguably no one has done more with less this decade than Purdue’s Matt Painter. After falling to Virginia in the Elite Eight in 2019, the Boilermakers have responded with a National Championship Game appearance and back-to-back Big Ten regular-season titles over the past two years. Painter has brought in only two transfers since the beginning of the NIL/portal frenzy in 2021-22, and he has also avoided portal exoduses.
Four-year center Zach Edey — ranked 75th in his position out of high school — won back-to-back National Player of the Year awards under Painter’s tutelage, and the 33rd ranked point guard prospect in 2022 — junior Braden Smith — is now the preseason favorite for the Big Ten Player of the Year. Players simply develop in Purdue’s system.
Defense isn’t as great of a strength for Purdue as it is for Iowa State and Marquette, yet the Boilermakers have clearly adjusted to a changing landscape by holding true to their ways. Does a program with high player retention, underrated recruiting classes, and regular-season success sound familiar? Painter is also about the closest you’ll find to a Bennett-type figure in college basketball.
3. Marquette, 71.4% since 2021-22 (60.4% prior)
A familiar face within the Commonwealth, Coach Shaka Smart has largely walled himself off from the changing landscape since he took the Marquette job three years ago. Only two transfers have come into the Golden Eagles’ program in that span — double-digit scorer Darryl Morsell and NBA Draft selection Olivier Maxence-Prosper — as Smart has successfully created a culture in which player retention is the norm, not the anomaly. Another defensive-oriented coach, he has established Marquette as a Big East contender year-in and year-out and has churned out NBA prospects, as well.
Coincidentally, the defensive teams of today look oddly similar to the Virginia teams in Bennett’s first few years. Sampson and Smart are highly selective about transfers, akin to Painter at Purdue, as they instead relish player development and the opportunity to separate their cultures from those of transfer-heavy or money-driven teams. It is more difficult to churn lower-ranked players into offensive stars, yet you can still win with a defensive mentality or a roster chock-full of players with experience in a certain role in a certain system.
This is all to say that it is not impossible to create a unique culture within the NIL space. The new wave certainly took its toll on Bennett and it has undeniably put a strain on the aforementioned coaches. However, an identity (like with Bennett’s rosters of the 2010s) goes a long way to combat the pay-for-play structure currently dominating college sports.
It might take awhile for Virginia to reposition itself as a national juggernaut, yet there’s hope for a light at the end of the tunnel.
