The Cats and Western Bulldogs have been urged to avoid Bailey Smith being walked to the national draft as they haggle over a deal for the gun midfielder.
Talks have dragged into the second week of the trade period after the Dogs have been reluctant to move the 23-year old for Geelong’s first-round pick — the No. 17 selection — which is set to move back a few spots.
Reports say the Cats are willing to risk Smith getting dragged to the national draft, which would be less than ideal for the on-baller, as they stand firm on their offer of Pick 17.
Smith is out of contract, but as he’s not yet eligible for free agency, can only be moved via trade.
“Geelong has offered its first-round pick, I think we all think that’s about right — when we talk about Baker (costing) Pick 14, Houston Pick 12 or 13 — Bailey Smith at Pick 17 isn’t too far away from those guys,” Herald Sun’s Scott Gullan said on Fox Footy’s Trading Day.
“Yes, he’s had a knee and didn’t play great two years ago. But before that, the 21-year old version was outstanding. But you’re taking a risk … we know about his anxiety.
“This is not a layup. So that’s why I think Geelong is going: ‘We’re giving you a first-round pick in this draft everyone is talking about.’
“I think it’ll eventually get done.”
The former Pick 7’s value has dipped after he missed the entire 2024 season due to an ACL injury following an underwhelming 2023 campaign.
Smith has also previously opened up on his overthinking and mental health struggles.
“There’s always ‘ifs’ attached to this … I just think if his body is right, his best footy is worth more than Pick 17,” Hawks legend Dermott Brereton said.
“But I think where he’s been for the last two years, I think Pick 17 is about right … they’re only an ice cream cup away from getting this done.”
Bulldogs list boss Sam Power this week wasn’t willing to specify what the Dogs were wanting back in the deal but that they “expect a lot,” while Geelong counterpart Andrew Mackie was hopeful of striking a deal that “lads well for both clubs.”
The Cats currently hold picks 17, 38 and 57 in this draft and the Dogs own selections 35 and 48.
“Geelong has a history of not doing that (making a player go to the national draft), they get these deals done and understand the human side of it — (list guru) Stephen Wells is the best negotiator in the business and Andrew Mackie has shown he’s very good at it,” Gullan added.
“And (his manager) Paul Connors … they won’t let that happen, they’ll manipulate the whole set up.
“I think it’ll go down to the wire, I don’t know what steak knives will be thrown in. But I would be shocked if he went with the draft.”
Fellow Herald Sun journalist Jon Ralph agreed that you “can’t put him through” the nervous wait of the national draft.
And Ralph believes Geelong’s shrewd track record in recruiting late gems means it can afford to give slightly overs in the Smith deal.
“Stephen Wells came back from a Harvard Business course … they said if everyone wins from a deal, that’s OK. And so that’s the way they did the Jeremy Cameron deal,” he added.
“The reason you can get Ollie Dempsey Pick 15 in the rookie draft, (Lawson) Humphries Pick 63 in the National Draft — you bring those kids and you can allow yourself to hand over a future second, which will be Pick 50 next year.
“You get the deal done, you don’t put him through the national draft.”
