The Hawks and Bucks will clash in the NBA Cup semifinals on Saturday. Milwaukee has the head-to-head edge in recent years, but Atlanta is a completely different squad this season — with athletic wings who push the pace, defend and hustle at an elite level.
Here are three keys to the high-stakes matchup in Las Vegas:
Hawks will fight to the finish
No lead has been insurmountable for the Hawks this season. During Wednesday’s quarterfinal versus the Knicks, they overcame a 12-point second-half lead en route to a 108-100 victory.
The Hawks are 7-10 this season in games they’ve trailed by double digits — the seven wins being the most by any team. And Quin Synder’s squad has been equally impressive in close encounters, going 8-5 in games separated by five points in the final five minutes (including four in a row). In those four wins, they scored 64 points on 49 clutch possessions.
To that end, Trae Young leads the NBAÂ in clutch assists (17)Â and free throws (25-of-28). The Hawks are also one of the better offensive-rebounding units in the clutch, grabbing 40.4% of their misses. This skill was on full display when they out-hustled the Knicks in the quarterfinals, grabbing 22 offensive boards, including 14 in the second half.
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo make his free throws?
During the Hawks’ 119-104 win over the Bucks last week, Giannis Antetokounmpo got to the free-throw line a whopping 26 times. He converted on 15 of those tries, leaving at least 11 points on the table.
The Hawks employed a hack-a ploy in the fourth quarter, sending “The Greek Freak” to the line five times. The strategy worked as Antetokounmpo went 5-of-10 and the Hawks got to play a possession-by-possession game and took Milwaukee’s shooters out of the equation.
Don’t be surprised if they use a similar formula on Saturday, with Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson doing everything within their power to prevent Antetokounmpo from dominating at the rim. Antetokounmpo is averaging 18.9 points in the restricted area this season but was kept to 16 against the Hawks last week.
Pace could dictate outcome
This matchup is a classic case of young legs versus old legs. The Hawks are third in PACE, while the aging Bucks are 16th. The Hawks are third in transition points (26.6 per game) and the Bucks are 23rd (20.8).
Furthermore, Atlanta, the league leader in possessions per game, has managed nearly 400 more possessions than Milwaukee through 26 games. During their matchup last week, the Hawks had a 30-12 advantage in fast-break points and forced the Bucks into 18 turnovers, including five in the fourth quarter.
It’s worth noting that 16 of those turnovers were live-ball turnovers, with the bench mob of De’Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu and Bogdan Bogdanovic combining for 10 steals. It was further evidence that the Bucks prefer playing a half-court game and can’t afford to let the Hawks dictate pace.
Tip off is at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The winner will face either the Thunder or Rockets in Tuesday’s NBA Cup final.
