Duke recently came in ranked #7 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 Poll and was picked to win the ACC in the conference’s preseason poll released yesterday.
With the #1 ranked recruiting class coming in, arguably the best recruiting class of all time, mixed with experienced backcourt returners and high-level transfers, most around the sport view Duke as a national championsip contender. And for good reason, that is. Duke has the potential to be the best defensive team in the country, has lots of shooting, and all-around is one of the deepest squads in the country.
Upon the releases of the AP and ACC polls, it became clear just how important success through the non-conference schedule will be for the Blue Devils, at least it looks that way in the preseason.
Duke will face four preseason AP ranked teams in November and December: #23 Kentucky, #1 Kansas, #10 Arizona, and #11 Auburn.
Head coach Jon Scheyer has never shied away from giving his team several difficult matchups in the non-con, not being worried about losses or potentially falling in the rankings before conference play opens up.
The issue for Duke this season is that it might not be able to afford two or three losses in the games above, and that’s because of how weak the ACC is projected to be as a whole this season.
Once conference play begins, Duke will face a team ranked right now twice with both of those matchups being against #9 North Carolina.
Outside of the Tar Heels, there aren’t going to be many contests where the Blue Devils can stack up Quadrant 1 wins (a win at home against an RPI-ranked 1-30 team, on a neutral court against an RPI-ranked 1-50 team, and a road win against an RPI-ranked 1-75 team, count as Quadrant 1 wins.)
In Ken Pomeroy’s preseason projections for every team in the nation, he collectively put the ACC as the fifth-best conference in the nation behind the rest of the power conferences: SEC, Big 12, Big 10, and Big East. Pomeroy also has just five ACC teams in the top fifty nationally: Duke (2), North Carolina (14), Clemson (22), Pittsburgh (32), and Wake Forest (44).
Now in the world of college basketball, there are going to be surprises. Teams that come out of nowhere and are great, conferences that come out of nowhere and are great, and the same thing the other way where teams disappoint their expectations.
Louisville? Notre Dame? Georgia Tech? There are some squads in the ACC that could potentially exceed expectations, but how it’s looking right now, there won’t be many high-profile win opportunities on Duke’s schedule after the conference slate begins. And what that also does is risk hurting Duke more if it loses in conference play. Obviously, conference losses are going to happen. But, if the Blue Devils go 1-3 or even 0-4 through those four big matchups in the non-conference program, those in-conference losses can look a lot worse than they would if the Blue Devils pick up more than two of those big wins versus ranked teams.
Now, there’s no reason to think the Blue Devils will drop the majority of these games, given the team is maybe the most complete in the entire country. But, if January comes around and Duke doesn’t have those extra Quad 1 wins on its schedule, it could put that much more pressure on the program through ACC play.
