We have now reached single digit days in our countdown until the Virginia Cavaliers tip off their basketball season on Wednesday, November 6th. Ron Sanchez gets to begin with a couple buy games before getting directly into the swing of more difficult matchups.
UVA’s conference slate is highlighted by a trip to Baha Mar, which includes games against Tennessee and Baylor or St. John’s, a clash with Villanova in Baltimore, a visit to Florida, and a home game versus Memphis.
Per Bart Torvik, the Cavaliers rank 137th nationally in non-conference strength of schedule, which is good for 11th out of 18 in the ACC. The good news for this team (which to say is unproven is a gross understatement) is that outside of their power conference competition, there are no apparent trap games. Of six mid-major opponents, the model’s highest ranked team is No. 232 American.
Meet the Opponents
Campbell
Date: Wednesday, November 6 at 7:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 317th (14th in CAA)
Might not be a Virginia offensive explosion to tip-off the season. Kevin McGeehan’s Campbell squads have a tendency to muck things up against higher level competition.
The Fighting Camels pressed at the 12th highest rate in D1 last year, per Synergy. So it will be a unique yet necessary challenge to start the season, at least from a schematic perspective. Just keep in mind that even though Campbell can limit the game’s possessions, they have not been particularly efficient on either end.
Coppin State
Date: Monday, November 11th at 7:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 360th (8th in MEAC)
We’ve seen these guys before. The Cavaliers put up 97 on the Eagles in their national championship season. 2021-22 featured a more modest 68-52 victory. Simply put, this is a bottom five team in D1 in virtually every analytical model. Don’t lose this game.
Villanova
Date: Friday, November 15th at 5:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 43rd (6th in Big East)
Alright, now we’re talking. This one will (hopefully) be Virginia’s first true battle. UVA and Villanova are two programs who can relate in a lot of ways. Both dominated the 2010’s, had universally respected coaches that retired at a young age, and were taken over by a hand-picked former assistant that the public is skeptical about.
Under Kyle Neptune, the Wildcats have vastly underperformed their talent, and now probably have less of it. Facing Eric Dixon in the post will be a tough assignment, as will guard Wooga Poplar, who you may remember from his Miami days.
Tennessee
Date: Thursday, November 21st at 9:30 pm
Torvik Projection: 6th (1st in SEC)
The Volunteers are absolutely loaded. Their defense will be as dominant as usual, with Zakai Ziegler on-ball, Jamai Maishack on the wing, and Felix Okpara protecting the rim. Superstar scorer Dalton Knecht is gone but Rick Barnes brings in another high-upside transfer from the low-major ranks in Chaz Lanier from North Florida. Tennessee’s projected starting five is rounded out by former Wahoo Igor Milicic.
Manhattan
Date: Tuesday, November 26th at 7:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 332nd (11th in MAAC)
The Jaspers are another poor quality team, even for a low-major. Their only double digit scorer last year, Shaquil Bender, returns, but he scored his 13.1 points per game on extremely low efficiency. Manhattan will feature a base 1-3-1 zone, which allowed points on spot-ups at the 10th worst rate in the country last year, per CBB Analytics.
Holy Cross
Date: Friday, November 29th at 4:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 330th (9th in Patriot League)
Under new head coach Dave Paulsen, Holy Cross is not in good hands but expectations are extremely low in 2024-25. Big man Caleb Kenney, their lone senior on the roster, won the Patriot League’s Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Expect the Crusaders to run some good pick-and-roll actions with the bigs also acting as a threat to stretch the floor. The catch? Holy Cross is coming off of a season where they were literally the nation’s least efficient defensive team. If Virginia has an offensive surge in one game this year, it’s this one.
Florida
Date: Wednesday, December 4th at 7:15 pm
Torvik Projection: 36th (9th in SEC)
We will likely see a new and improved version of the Gators from last year. Most importantly for a Todd Golden team, the Gators feature a plethora of lengthy options in the front court, most notably sophomore Alex Condon. In the backcourt, Walter Clayton Jr. is already a proven star and Alijah Martin is coming off of three great seasons at Florida Atlantic.
Without an abundance of ball-handlers, Florida may be susceptible to turning the ball over, so we will see how that plays out against Virginia’s pack-line and how much they look to push in transition.
Bethune-Cookman
Date: Thursday, December 12th at 7:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 266th (3rd in SWAC)
Head coach Reggie Theus brings in 11 newcomers, most notably guard Brayon Freeman, a Coastal Carolina transfer who previously averaged 10+ points per game twice in the A10 (George Washington and URI).
Last year, Bethune-Cookman had success in the SWAC by overwhelming opponents physically and converting on free throws. As you can imagine, that was not exactly the case when they played against lone power conference opponents UCF and Mississippi State.A
Memphis
Date: Wednesday, December 18th at 7:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 32nd (1st in American)
Same story, different year. Memphis has all the talent in the world, but can Penny Hardaway piece it together? I will say that the Tigers’ projected starting lineup has an intriguing amount of balance.
Tyrese Hunter is a distributor, PJ Haggerty is a microwave scorer, Colby Rogers is lethal off the catch, Dain Danja is a beast in the post, and Moussa Cisse is one of the country’s best rim protectors. Memphis dominated Virginia early last year, before eventually falling victim to some brutal losses down the stretch.
American
Date: Sunday, December 22nd at 2:00 pm
Torvik Projection: 232nd (2nd in Patriot League)
Continuity is key and this is the second consecutive offseason where the Eagles rank towards the top in returning minutes. American is another slow paced team that runs their offense through their big Matt Rogers, a capable passer and scorer. Outside of Rogers (6’9”), Duane Simpkins’ squad is glaringly small, with nobody else above 6’7” in their projected top eight.
What is a realistic barometer for UVA’s success in the non-conference?
Every buy game is a must win, no exceptions. We have to be able to chalk in Campbell, Coppin State, Manhattan, Holy Cross, Bethune-Cookman, and American as victories. That’s six of your 11 contests right there.
In the other five, it’s fair to be very satisfied with 2-3. Tennessee is a long shot. Florida and Memphis will offer a lot more athletically, as will Baylor or St. John’s in the second game of the Baha Bar Hoops Championship. Villanova is the only opponent that is anywhere close to a toss-up. Maybe an upset will happen (after all, we are talking about college basketball). But Virginia has a clear cut group of projected wins and losses headed into the season.
Floor: 6-5
Most Likely: 7-4
Ceiling: 9-2
