The New York Jets are home today facing a Denver Broncos team that is coming off their best effort of the season with a road victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let’s look at some storylines that should play into today’s game.
Denver crushes a previously undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers team
Denver went into Tampa reeling after two close loses to the Seattle Seahawks (26-20) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (13-6) and put a whipping on the Buccaneers 26-7. This was a game I made some money on as I knew that the Broncos would beat the spread on the game since it was a classic sandwich game. The Buccaneers beat a rookie quarterback in his first game (Washington) with a team with a horrible defense. They played well on the road to survive a close game with the Lions (who did not play their best) in a 20-16 Tampa Victory. The Buccaneers then came home to face an 0-2 Denver team coming to town with another rookie quarterback. The Buccaneers had the Philadelphia Eagles coming to town after the Broncos, so this was a predictable poor effort by the Bucs. It’s difficult to get yourself up for 17 NFL games a season, so when Tampa saw the Denver (0-2) game coming to town with a rookie quarterback they naturally relaxed, figuring they could win this game in the Tampa heat and humidity against a team that plays in the Rocky Mountains.
The Buccaneers aren’t that good, and the Broncos aren’t that bad, which was the reason for the Buccaneers defeat.
The Buccaneers loss was a perfect opportunity for the Jets coaches to preach to the players not to take the Broncos for granted. If Denver had come to New Jersey 0-3 it might have been a different story, and the Jets may have overlooked the Broncos, but not now.
Bo Nix comes to town hitting on 63% of his passes through 3 games.
Nix has thrown four interceptions, but he also has two rushing touchdowns. Nix has yet to throw a touchdown pass. His adjusted average yards gained per pass attempt is 3.87 yards, which is dismal. Like most rookies, Nix crumbles under pressure. In Tampa he was rarely pressured and took zero sacks.
The Jets sack quarterbacks at a league-high pace of 16.8% of pass attempts without blitzing. The Broncos also put their best pass protector, Mike McGlinchey, on injured reserve on September 18, so the Broncos have second year man Alex Palczewski at right tackle, who is a better run blocker (66.2) than pass blocker (58.5) per PFF.
Look for the Jets defensive linemen to pressure the heck out of Nix. The one caveat is they must do so smartly by staying in their lanes. Nix is a very mobile quarterback. and he can make it to the sticks on third down to move the chains. If the Jets can be smart and pressure Nix without leaving escape routes, they can make the rookie throw into coverage, which will eventually cause interceptions.
Pat Surtain II will be on Garrett Wilson, which will take Wilson out of the game
This is the mantra from the talking heads in commentary. Do not pay attention to that rot. Wilson is a baller who faces all kinds of defenses every week who look to contain him. He usually gets the best coverage man with safety help over the top, but he still is getting more than 8.5 targets and five receptions a game.
Patrick Surtain II is a great player. I scouted him quite a bit when he came out from Alabama. I usually believe that Alabama cornerbacks are overrated coming out of college because they play in a very talented defense and they get the best possible coaching in a (then) Nick Saban coaching staff, so they have less ability to develop much more than a player from a school without NFL style coaches. Coming out of college I had Surtain as my #7 player right in front of Penei Sewell and Micah Parsons.
Surtain was different. He has natural abilities to cover, much like Sauce Gardner. He’s a big kid at 6’ 2” and 202 pounds, so he’s great in run support, but he’s not had a great year so far. He was very good as a rookie as he was graded by PFF as the 39th best corner. He rose to second best corner in his second season, but he slipped to 42nd in 2023. This year he is graded as the 94th best (in coverage) out of 99 CBs. He has played 170 snaps of 190 total defensive snaps out wide, so the Jets could roll Wilson into the slot if they want to free him of Surtain. The Jets could also use Wilson in motion. The Surtain coverage thing is way overstated.
The emergence of WR Mike Williams
Mike Williams was always looked at as a player who would be a better asset mid-season, since he was coming off a major injury. Williams only played nine snaps his first game, but he increased that to 37 snaps the following week. Against the Patriots his snap rate fell to 33, but only because the Jets were ahead by so much and had complete control of the game. His targets increased against the Patriots. Williams had four targets last week after he had a single target in the first two weeks combined. This is a great sign that Williams is ready for a larger role in the Jets offense.
The Jets worked Williams downfield numerous times. Williams is a deep ball/jump ball specialist who thrives in making acrobatic catches. He does so with great ability to contort his body, adjusting to the pass to make the catch. These catches are usually huge plays, but the real key is that Williams either makes the catch or the ball is incomplete. He makes sure he doesn’t allow his coverage man to take the ball. With his size at 6’ 4” and 220 pounds, he usually towers over his opponent while winning the physical battle.
This is a situation that will become more prevalent in the future, but with Surtain following Wilson the Jets may take more shots downfield with Williams (which could get him going) against the Broncos.
The Jets run game should get going
The Jets have assembled a great group of running backs, highlighted by Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. Israel Abanikanda is fourth in the pecking order, but he would be second on many NFL teams. This is an exciting group of RBs with diverse abilities.
The Broncos have injury concerns at the linebacker position, which provides multiple problems for the visiting team. Linebacker Baron Browning (who is a great blitzer off the edge) was put on injured reserve a week ago, and linebacker Alex Singleton was put on injured reserve on September 25. Safety JL Skinner was put on injured reserve on September 27.
Look for the Jets to run a lot of outside zone plays to get linebackers Justin Strnad and Cody Barton moving sideways. Both linebackers are on the larger size, so they are more stout than quick. The Jets should break a couple of big gainers in this game.
The Jets should continue to use their running backs in the passing game. The combination of Hall and Allen have averaged nine targets a game through three weeks. This keeps linebackers from dropping deep in fear of the dump off pass to a talented running back. This only helps the receivers. The running backs make first downs and keep the chains moving. It makes the defense cover the entire field with Williams deep, Wilson in the intermediate area and the running backs in the flat.
Look for more involvement from Tyler Conklin
Like I just stated the linebackers for the Broncos are on the larger size and speed is not their strong suit. Look for Conklin to run the seam numerous times with some quality gains to come from it. Conklin had six targets last week. If the Jets are in a tight game, you could see that number increase.
This should be a Jets Win
The NFL is unpredictable since we are dealing with people and not robots. The Jets saw what happened in Tampa Bay last Sunday, so they should be motivated to keep their eye on the prize. The Broncos have been in every game this year, so the Jets will need to put the pedal to the metal on the offensive side. There is no way the Broncos can keep up with a potent, aggressive offense. With the Jets bevy of veteran leaders, the Jets should be up to the task and put a whopping on the visitors from the Rockies.
That’s what I think.
What do you think?
