After 25 tumultuous rounds the dust has barely settled on one of the most chaotic finals races in memory.
And 18 teams have finally become eight after a season full of twists and turns, with favourites falling by the wayside at will.
Collingwood’s title defence is officially over before spring has officially sprung. They aren’t alone amongst recent flag winners on the sidelines of September, with the winners of six of the past seven premierships staying at home.
At this time of the year talk usually turns to the top four as the favourites, and the bottom half of the eight as also runs. After all, only two sides have won a flag from the bottom half of the final eight since it came into place in 1994.
But 2024 has proven that it is a season a bit different to most others. Arguably the three hottest teams heading into the finals sit outside the top four, with the eighth-placed Carlton being the side many deemed as flag favourites as recently as halfway through the year.
This weekend will see these four sides whittled down to just two. The survivors will be well placed to become the sixth side to make the grand final from this position in the final eight era.
This is how each of these sides might make a famous charge, and what might stop them in their tracks.
Roaring back into contention
The Lions have roared back into premiership contention after a slow start to the season. (Getty Images: Albert Perez)
Coming into the season many tabbed Brisbane as the most likely to hoist the cup in 2024. After all, they were only a kick away from doing so last year, and they only looked to get better in the off-season.
Instead of a fast start, Brisbane stumbled out of the blocks. Most of the signs were there, but those critical final two kicks — inside 50 and then towards goal — were issues for Chris Fagan’s side.
The Lions’s ability to slot goals significantly improved as the year progressed. That improved ability in front of the sticks has, unsurprisingly, led to more wins.
Brisbane’s underlying game remains mostly unchanged — they control first possession and subsequently territory, grinding opposition sides into submission. Their specialty is locking the ball inside their half for repeat chances. Almost no team scores more from the front half than the Lions
If there’s an ongoing weakness, it’s what happens when it breaks through that high line. They’ve taken their time in replacing smooth, back half ball users such as Keidean Coleman and Daniel Rich, hurting their ability to ease the pressure down back. That’s despite Dayne Zorko’s emergence as a defender.
They’ve also suffered a series of injuries to their taller defensive stocks with replacement and makeshift options partnering Harris Andrews.
Despite their co-captain’s brilliance, the Lions have been around average on a wide range of key defensive indicators. If sides can move the ball up the ground quickly, the Lions defence can bleed marks inside 50 and give up easy shots.
Carlton, with their two tall stars Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay potentially returning from injury, will offer the Lions a massive test.
Overcoming a side like Carlton will go a long way to proving how ready they are to beat any of the sides in front of them — no matter how they match up with their weaknesses.
Recovering from being battered and Blue
Charlie Curnow is set to return for the first week of finals after suffering an injury. (Getty Images: Daniel Pockett)
For a few hours two weeks ago, Carlton’s season looked done.
After Jack Higgins’s last second goal, Blues fans were forced to watch to see if Fremantle would kill their year.
Port Adelaide finally emerged to save the Blues hopes, but what version of Carlton will play in the finals remains to be seen.
The Blues started the year as one of the hottest sides in the competition before being slowed by ever smarter opponents and, perhaps more critically, injuries.
The Blues finished the year with 18 players on their injury list, including some of their most important players.
A Carlton side with Curnow, McKay, Adam Cerra, Sam Docherty, Adam Saad, Jack Martin, and Mitch McGovern is a radically different proposition to one without them.
When flying, Carlton can beat teams in a variety of ways. They can lean on their inside ball winners such as Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and George Hewett to get them flying. They can also sit back a little more and attack off the rebound, using Nic Newman and Saad to tear opposition sides apart.
Across the course of the year they’ve been the side that has turned inside 50s to goals most efficiently — largely down to their ability to find one-on-one opportunities for their forwards to capitalise on.
If there’s a weakness, it comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Blues have struggled to stop other teams from scoring from stoppages, especially when the ball is locked in the other team’s half.
They sit ahead of only North Melbourne and West Coast in points conceded from stoppage in general.
Even more surprisingly they are worse than both of those bottom four sides in defending forward half stoppages — conceding roughly a goal every fourth stoppage.
This is the other side of their ball winning midfield — with attack comes the potential to get hurt.
Against Brisbane, whose method leans heavily on repeat attacks from front half territory dominance, Carlton’s vulnerabilities will be on show. If they can regain close to their best side, they will need their best efforts to withstand a side built to test their weaknesses.
Low flying Hawks ready to swoop
The young Hawks have proven dangerous when they swoop on the build in open space. (Getty Images: Michael Willson)
The rise of Sam Mitchell’s Hawks’ has been the talk of the AFL world over the last three months.
Hawthorn have little to lose this finals series, having exceeded most expectations already.
A team with nothing to lose is a dangerous opponent. The Hawks swarm and swoop on the ball, pushing the energy at every turn. Waves of pressure wear down opponents, spilling the ball or creating intercept opportunities for their defenders.
Hawthorn has become increasingly adept at committing extra numbers around the ball, denying options to ball carriers, and being ready to snare the ground ball that results.
Their high defensive line and their tendency to move backwards with the ball from stoppages also adds to the numbers they concentrate in this area, ready to launch forward.
The Hawks have dominated sides on the ground, and effectively spread when they’ve won the ball as well as almost any other team.
The structure has taken them from winless after five games, all the way to finals.
While the Hawks are arguably the strongest remaining team at swooping the ball on the ground, they struggle when the ball starts to reach great heights.
The Hawks battle to find open teammates for marks compared with most other finalists. They’ve also struggled to win contested marks at the same rate as most other top sides.
As a smaller side around the ground, Hawthorn doesn’t have the same ability to win high balls. This could come to bite as the defences get more staunch as the footy gets more serious.
Hawthorn shares some similarities to their elimination final opponents. The Dogs, like the Hawks, are heavy on using handballs and like to exit stoppages through the back of the contest.
This similarity might see some very interesting battles in the middle.
Dogs defending their patch
Marcus Bontempelli is one of the few Bulldogs remaining from the 2016 premiership. (Getty Images: Michael Willson)
If there’s one side who knows how to win from the lower parts of the eight, it’s the Dogs.
That famous 2016 premiership saw the Bulldogs march from 7th all the way to the flag, beating minor premiers Sydney to cap the season.
There’s a real chance that a similar flag would also go through a Sydney side that finished the season on top of the ladder.
Like 2016, the 2024 Dogs heated up as the season progressed, finding their final form in time for the footy to become serious.
Only six of that 2016 side still remain on the current list, but those names are at the core of the current Bulldogs side. One only needs to look to talisman Marcus Bontempelli to see the legacy.
After a slow start to the year, the Bulldogs steamed home by reworking elements of their game and returning partly to what has made them good in recent years.
The Dogs’s game is about dominating territory and effectively defending up the field — especially after winning the hard ball at contests.
The Dogs dominate the inside 50 battle like no other side, using their dangerous midfield group to gain field positioning. In recent years the Dogs have emphasised generating repeat inside 50s, sometimes sacrificing quality of entries for speed and second chances.
This ability to dominate field positioning has significantly helped their new look defence. The Bulldogs have nearly completely overhauled their defence in the two years, with Rory Lobb, Joel Freijah, Nick Coffield, Baku Khamis, Liam Jones and James O’Donnell all playing a significant role for a defence that has done well at preventing opposition shots at goal.
When the Dogs do allow shots, however, they tend to be far more valuable shots than other sides. The Bulldogs allow a relatively high rate of marks for opposition inside 50 entries, a clear sign that when the upfield dam is breached it breaks badly.
When put together, this means opposition sides have been able to convert shots into goals at rate far more than league average. Opposition sides have pulled off “upset” type losses with fewer shots than the Dogs three times this year already.
This is the part of the game that the Dogs will have to nail down to charge through September again.
If they can work out their connection between their forwards and upfield players, few teams have the defensive ability to stop them.
