Everything is on the line in the penultimate weekend of home and away football, as the top eight is still yet to fully form.
With finals hanging in the balance for three teams outside the top eight, Essendon and Collingwood will need to pull major upsets whilst Carlton will need to hold firm without their injured stars.
Plenty is on the line, so what metric will influence your club’s result this week?
Essendon vs Sydney – marks inside 50
Essendon conceded four marks inside 50 to Ben King and Mac Andrew in their final quarter against Gold Coast, the latter being the player who slotted the game-winning goal after the siren. The athletic talls tore the Bombers’ defence to shreds in a thrilling last-quarter comeback.
Sydney will have to greatly improve their inside 50 entries though if they are to foil Essendon in similar fashion. Over their last five games, Sydney average the least marks inside 50 in the AFL, at just nine per game. It’s hence why players such as Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey, who average two marks inside 50 for the season, now average just 1.6 and 1.3 respectively since Round 18.
Essendon too have struggled marking inside 50 since Round 18, which is illustrated on their record. Averaging just 10.8 marks inside 50, ranked 11th, the Bombers have lost four of their last five games.
However, when Kyle Langford, Peter Wright or Jake Stringer are hit lace out on a lead, Essendon’s performance greatly improves. In their Round 17 win over Collingwood, the Bombers recorded 18 marks inside 50.
If not for an Isaac Heeney fourth-quarter masterclass, Sydney’s six marks inside 50s against the Magpies would have been a cause for concern. If they are to recapture their formidable form from earlier in the year, they’ll need to present strongly inside 50 on Friday night.
Gold Coast vs Melbourne – intercept marks and marks inside 50
The Suns’ forward line will face an intriguing battle against Melbourne on Saturday, with both sides containing quality intercept defenders and athletic key forwards. The Demons’ numbers from their past five games have fallen against their season average, as Steven May continues to miss due to a rib injury.
However, with Jake Lever and Max Gawn remaining in the side, Melbourne are still poised to revert to their defensive dominance. Since Round 18, Lever and Gawn average 2.2 and three intercept marks respectively.
Gold Coast still remain the premier intercepting side in the AFL though. The Suns average 18.6 intercept marks per game in 2024, and even with Mac Andrew making a move up forward, Sam Collins has still held his own down back.
To overcome both sides’ intercepting prowess, having the forwards match them in the air will be vital. Gold Coast have been having selection headaches on whether to select Ben King, Jed Walter, Jack Lukosius or Andrew in their forward line, each having strong marking performances throughout the season.
Melbourne are having headaches for opposing reasons, as the Demons remain without a compelling key forward in their lineup. Jacob van Rooyen and Bayley Fritsch have been decent as a tandem, although still average under two marks inside 50 each.
GWS vs Fremantle – uncontested possessions
The Giants’ game plan has been to surge forward in attack through uncontested, overlapping chains of possession. Their quick counters on offence have produced consecutive come-from-behind victories, as their grip on a top-four finish tightens. Averaging the fourth-most uncontested possessions per game, the Giants regularly get the game on their terms.
Similarly, Fremantle utilise uncontested possession to play their best football too. Fremantle use uncontested marking to chip their way through opposition defence, and burst through when gaps open up. The Dockers average the most uncontested possessions in the AFL at 238.4 per game.
Whichever side can maintain possession will control the tempo of the game, which could be the determining factor in this high-stakes top eight clash.
Collingwood vs Brisbane – inside 50s
Brisbane’s return to form has been largely due to their midfield dominance, which dominates the contested ball, increasing the Lions’ chances to send the ball inside 50. The Lions average the most inside 50s in the competition at 57.4 per game.
Collingwood are ranked 12th, averaging 49.6, however have high efficiency from their entries. Ranked third for scores per inside 50 entry, Collingwood record a score from 47.9% of their inside 50s. Last week, the Pies scored 26 times from 49 entries, a rate of 53.1%.
If Collingwood are to win the 2023 Grand Final rematch back at the MCG, they’ll need to ensure their inside 50s entries are as effective as they were against the Swans. The Lions have proven they are past their MCG woes, and will be hungry to solidify a top four spot with a non-stop attack.
Port Adelaide vs Adelaide – disposal efficiency
It’s Showdown LVI, and the game once again presents as an even contest. In the 55th clash between the South Australian clubs, Port Adelaide kicked a wasteful 5.18 to succumb to a polished Crows outfit.
However, this was not the only aspect of efficiency that let the Power down. Port Adelaide recorded a disposal efficiency of 64.6%, a rate 7.8% worse than their season average.
The Crows average the fifth-best disposal efficiency in the competition at 73.5%, and demonstrated that once again with a rate of 73.4% against the Bulldogs. In what is always a hotly contested clash, the Power will need to improve their composure in pressure moments to match an Adelaide side fresh off an upset win.
St Kilda vs Geelong – clearances
Geelong’s midfield has produced clinical displays across their last five games, averaging the second-most clearances since Round 18 at 42.4 per game.
St Kilda on the other hand average the least clearances in the AFL from the past five weeks, with just 32 per game. However, despite recording low figures, the Saints have still been able to match or exceed their opposition in the clearance count in three wins since Round 18. The Saints recorded clearance differentials of +8, -3, and 0 against West Coast, Essendon and Richmond.
Against Geelong in Round 1, St Kilda recorded three more clearances than the Cats as they fell just eight points shy of victory. A similar performance on Saturday night could be the determining factor in a St Kilda upset result.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne – goalkicking efficiency
The Bulldogs potentially cost themselves a top four spot after a lamentable kicking display against Adelaide, scoring 9.18 for the match. It was the second consecutive week the Bulldogs wasted opportunities in front of goal, with a 15.20 performance against Melbourne that saw Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kick 2.6.
The Bulldogs also come up against one of the best goalkicking teams under the Marvel Stadium roof this weekend. North Melbourne have kicked a combined 71 goals and just 29 behinds from their last five games at Marvel Stadium, an average of nearly 15 goals per game and just 5.8 behinds. These performances have resulted in two wins, and three losses by an average margin of just 12.3.
Therefore, this game presents as a danger game for the Bulldogs if they don’t sharpen up their accuracy, as a dead-eye North Melbourne side have the capability to cause a boilover.
Hawthorn vs Richmond – tackles
Ranked last for tackles per game, the Tigers average just 42.4 this season. Against a surging Hawthorn playstyle, a lack of defensive pressure on the ball carrier will allow Hawthorn to stroll to victory on Sunday. If Richmond are to avenge their loss in Round 14, they’ll need to up the ante defensively to affect Hawthorn’s efficiency going forward.
No game is a given however, and Hawthorn will need to maintain their constant pressure that has rewarded them with 11-goal wins over Collingwood and Adelaide, and most recently a 74-point trouncing of Carlton. Hawthorn recorded 51 tackles against the Blues, 13 of which were inside 50.
West Coast vs Carlton – tackles inside 50
With Charlie Curnow (ankle) and Harry McKay (quad) ruled out of this weekend’s clash against West Coast, Carlton will need to find alternative avenues to score.
Carlton have been one of the competition’s best forward 50 pressure teams, averaging the third-most tackles inside 50 this season with an average of 11.6. Without their best key forwards to present for marks, the Blues may find a ‘chaos-ball’ style of inside 50 entries effective for their nimble small forwards in Jesse Motlop and Matthew Owies, as well as potentially Orazio Fantasia, who faces a test to overcome his calf concern.
Hawthorn applied ample forward 50 pressure against Carlton last weekend, and West Coast can aim to replicate this to cause an upset win. The Hawks recorded 13 tackles inside 50, however the Eagles recorded only eight in their come-from-behind thriller over North Melbourne. Emulating Hawthorn’s pressure inside 50 will be the key for an Eagles upset, providing the chance for an inconceivable third-straight win.
