The NBA’s Southwest Division is no joke. The Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, and San Antonio Spurs all have reason to believe they will make the NBA Playoffs next season. Each organization has made significant moves this offseason in free agency and decision-makers are now turning the scouting pages to focus on the upcoming season more than next summer’s prospects.
Early roster projections are the roughest of estimates. However, the Pelicans have some clarity when it comes to better understanding how the current depth chart stacks up against divisional rivals. Here are seven key stats on the scouting report that will factor in heavily when it comes to the final records.
Pelicans standing pat with core so far
Executive Vice President David Griffin has made significant moves this offseason, including acquiring All-Star guard Dejounte Murray and signing veteran center Daniel Theis. New Orleans also nabbed Yves Missi and Antonio Reeves in the 2024 NBA Draft. Dyson Daniels, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, and Larry Nance Jr. are gone but the front office kept the homegrown core intact.
Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum are coming back to the Crescent City barring a trade. Ingram may leave town before training camp, sure, but that is looking less likely by the day. ESPN’s Zach Lowe reports that any movement in the Ingram market depends on Lauri Markkanen leaving the Utah Jazz first.
(All stats are per 100 possessions and league rankings are in parenthesis.)
- Points: 116.5 (11th)
- Assists: 27.3 (10th)
- Steals: 8.4 (2nd)
- Turnovers: 13.2 (12th)
- Threes attempted: 33 (23rd)
- Defensive Rating: 111.9 (6th)
- Pace: 98.7 (16th)
Scouting Report: The supporting cast of Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, and Jose Alvarado means this squad will at least look similar next season. The Pelicans admit that more three-pointers are a requirement to compete at the highest level. The second-slowest offense in the division needs to play a little faster, shoot shots from a little further away, and hope for the best when it comes to healthy All-Stars. That would be a recipe for success only a few NBA teams could think of stopping. Unfortunately, a couple are in the division.
Dallas Mavericks doubling down on Luka Doncic
The Mavericks will remain formidable so long as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are leading the way. Their offseason moves focused on adding depth (Spencer Dinwiddie) and versatility (Naji Marshall) to support Doncic and Irving’s dynamic offensive adventures. The Pelicans will need to prepare for a team that can score efficiently and play at a high tempo.
Dallas is doubling down on Doncic’s legs being fresh. That’ll be tough for an All-NBA talent known for reporting to training camp in not quite peak shape. It is more worrisome after a long postseason was followed by Olympic qualifying. The Mavericks are not that great at sharing the ball or team defense either. Klay Thompson is supposed to provide another outlet but there are reasons beyond money for why the Golden State Warriors let him walk. A falling back to the middle of the pack for last season’s fifth-seeded Western Conference champs would not be unexpected.
- Points: 117 (8th)
- Assists: 25.5 (21st)
- Steals: 6.8 (27th)
- Turnovers: 12.4 (3rd)
- Threes attempted: 39.2 (2nd)
- Defensive Rating: 114.9 (18th)
- Pace: 100.6 (7th)
Scouting Report: New Orleans needs to make this top-heavy rival as one-dimensional as possible. Jason Kidd will let Doncic and Irving dictate tempo and attack angles. The Pelicans have to pressure them into isolation ball that leads to two-pointers to win the math problem. It’s a straightforward approach in theory but good luck once the game starts. New Orleans can drain Doncic and Irving’s energy on the defensive end but must watch out for Naji Marshall and Lively II.
Limiting transition opportunities is key to winning this series. Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray will have their hands full of problems in the backcourt. Trey Murphy III will have to contain Klay Thompson. Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic should be able to hold Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II in check. No one in Dallas can stop Zion from getting downhill but who will Williamson guard on defense?
Houston Rockets
Houston has a formidable first five. Fred Van Vleet, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks will fuel a 35-win season. Ime Udoka’s job is to find another 10 wins working with an inexperienced supporting cast and new center Steven Adams. Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, and Reed Sheppard will be great for League Pass viewing but betting the Rockets make the NBA Playoffs is a tough sell.
- Points: 113.7 (20th)
- Assists: 24.7 (29th)
- Steals: 7.7 (10th)
- Turnovers: 12.7 (7th)
- Threes attempted: 35.9 (12th)
- Defensive Rating: 112.8 (10th)
- Pace: 99.59 (13th)
Scouting Report: The Rockets have the young legs to run at an above-average pace. They may lack the ballhandlers to do so without making mistakes. The defense will be respectable but Houston’s floor-spacing shooters will not scare anyone. Look for Udoka to try some traditional inside-out play with Sengun and Adams to win a Points in the Paint battle. If so, this may be a matchup more suited to Daniel Theis and Trey Jemison than Missi and Matkovic.
San Antonio Spurs
The young, promising Spurs are looking to make a mark in the division. Their focus has been on player development and building a cohesive unit but Chris Paul and Gregg Popovich are running out of time. Popovic had one directive for last year’s squad: Play fast and learn from mistakes. Expect the Spurs to slow down slightly as they try to build a winning program around Victor Wembanyama.
- Points: 109.3 (26th)
- Assists: 29.1 (3rd)
- Steals: 6.9 (23rd)
- Turnovers: 14.8 (24th)
- Threes attempted: 35.5 (13th)
- Defensive Rating: 115.6 (21st)
- Pace: 101.8 (3rd)
Scouting Report: The Wembanyama Era is coming and there is no escape. This might be the last season that Texas does not have two MVP candidates in the top 5 of voting ballots. Mistakes will be ironed out in Wembanyama’s second season and the Spurs will be downright methodical with Chris Paul running the show. Stephon Castle will try to keep up as the lead guard when CP3 sits but San Antonio should slip back into the lottery once again. Either way, the favored Pelicans still need to prepare for a well-coached team that plays disciplined basketball. Playing down to the competition was a problem that cost the team wins last season.
Memphis Grizzlies
Everyone within 100 miles of Beale Street will consider the Grizzlies a title contender with Ja Morant returning. New Orleans does NOT want to hear about it though.
“They thought it wasn’t going to happen again!” Ja Morant feeling good after the Grizzlies’ OT win over the Pelicans 🔥 (via @DoingItDodson)
Memphis was flirting with the best record in the NBA 18 months ago. Morant’s return last fall had the Grizzlies feeling good about a charge up the charts and into a Play-In Tournament spot. Memphis was singing some tunes after two road wins in a week over Zion Williamson’s crew too. Then the injuries started to pile up. Still, this core plus recent additions Marcus Smart and Zach Edey will be in the the mix for a top-six seed.
Morant, the second-overall pick in 2019 behind Zion Williamson, has not played with Smart much due to injuries and a suspension. Edey will help Jackson Jr. provide elite rim protection. Bane has emerged as a reliable scorer and defender, giving Morant and Jackson Jr. every opportunity to save their energy for more offense. The numbers below should look far different at the end of next season.
- Points: 106.8 (30th)
- Assists: 24.9 (27th)
- Steals: 8.3 (5th)
- Turnovers: 15.2 (26th)
- Threes attempted: 38.1 (6th)
- Defensive Rating: 113.7 (12th)
- Pace: 98.68 (17th)
Scouting Report: Morant versus Williamson will get the headlines. No one knows where this Mississippi River Rivalry is headed though. It’s been too long since fans have seen either franchise at full strength. All that anyone knows for certain is that the Pelicans will not want Morant running out of the Smoothie King Center celebrating another win. The Grizzlies will be aiming to gloat about any victory in this evenly-matched heavyweight bout. It does not matter how ugly. The Pelicans better prepare or they’ll have to suffer through another knockout blow.
