Anticipation. The Roger Goddell booing session that will mark the opening of the 2024 NFL draft is right around the corner. Pundits from reputable sports agencies and news outlets and those from woodwork that is so old, and termite infested, you couldn’t put a nail through it have declared the best player at each position.
But the age-old problem always confronts fans this time of year. These self-proclaimed draft wizards don’t agree. The NFL safety board is a typical example. Tyler Nubin, Minnesota’s All Big 10 safety, was declared the early Big Board leader of the 2024 draft safety pack. He is experienced, a fifth-year senior.
As a senior he had 5 interceptions and had an incomprehensibly low QB rating when targeted of 17.5%. He has size and tackles well. Then he ran his 40-yard dash at the combine. He ran a 4.60 forty, putting him in the 37th percentile for safeties. Suddenly draft pundit draft boards were questioning his ranking.
The Packers like to draft fast safeties and corners. Guys that rate high on the RAS or Relative Athletic Score. The RAS was invented by a guy named Ken Lee Platte. Not that Packer fans are suspicious by nature, but the guy is a self declared Detroit Lions fan who liked math and just made up a correlation that combines testing numbers by position and adds an historical comparison assessment.
The Packers have used this Detroit Lion fans testing for safeties and corners in the past. Josh Jackson, cornerback out of Iowa was picked in the second round of the 2018 draft with a very high RAS of 9.27. Josh Jones was a second-round safety pick in 2017 out of N.C. State. Jones’ RAS score was 9.29.
Darnell Savage was a first round pick out of Maryland in 2019. His RAS score was an 8.37. Savage was the fastest of the group running a 4.36 forty predraft. Jones ran 4.41 while Jackson ran a 4.56. Kevin King’s RAS score was an eye popping 9.95 out of 10. Eric Stokes RAS was 9.37.
That’s five defensive secondary players picked by the Packers in the last seven years that did not live up to their RAS hype. Green Bay drafted six total defensive secondary players in the top three rounds during that time. If you role back the history lesson even further, your next plunge into the defensive secondary early round pool makes Packer fans gag; 2015’s Damarious Randall- Quinton Rollins one two gut punch.
The year before that it was Ha-Ha not living up to the hype. This long history of DB draft wiffs makes fans question whether a new approach is necessary when Green Bay drafts defensive backs early.
The Packers just signed a big free agent contract with safety Xavier McKinney. McKinney’s RAS score when he was drafted in the second round, the 36th pick of the 2020 draft, was a 5.86. Cleary the Giants didn’t prioritize RAS when they drafted a safety who made plays against top competition.
According to Peter Bukowski, the average pro bowl safety since 2011 has a RAS of 6.81. Tyler Nuban now has a RAS of 3.36 for a strong safety. Kamren Kinchens, a free safety draft prospect from Miami has outstanding game tape, but tested poorly and has an unofficial RAS of 2.11.
So, a devote Lions fan has thrown a wrench into the Packer draft plans at safety. Or has he? Will the Packers stick with their tried and untrue historical approach? Kind of a, “if it’s broke, don’t fix it” philosophy?
Or will Brian Gutekunst select the future All-Pro to bookend free agent signing Xavier McKinney? The Packers hopes for a future trip to the Super Bowl could literally hang in the balance.